South Korea’s political landscape is undergoing a significant transformation following the Constitutional Court’s decision to strip President Yoon Suk Yeol of his office, after months of turmoil stemming from his controversial declaration of martial law.
What Happens to Yoon?
The ruling by the Constitutional Court effectively removes Yoon from power, revoking his privileges and security detail. He is now required to vacate the presidential compound and will face a complex criminal trial on insurrection charges. If convicted, he could potentially face jail time or even the death penalty.
During his presidency, Yoon had successfully vetoed multiple attempts by lawmakers to investigate his wife, Kim Keon Hee, amidst a series of scandals. Legal experts anticipate that with his removal, the prosecution will now be able to scrutinize not only Yoon but also Kim in depth.
Upcoming Elections
In accordance with the law, a new presidential election must take place within 60 days. Reports suggest that the election is likely to be scheduled for the first week of June, with an official announcement expected soon. Unlike typical elections, the newly elected president will be inaugurated the day after the election, eliminating the usual transition period.
In the interim, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has stepped in as the acting president, a role he resumed following the court’s decision regarding his own impeachment.
The Front-Runner
Political analysts indicate that opposition leader Lee Jae-myung is likely to emerge as the next president. Currently, he holds a 34 percent support rating according to the latest Gallup poll. As the leader of the Democratic Party, which already controls the National Assembly, a victory for Lee would empower his party to pursue various reforms and legislation.
Lee, who has a compelling personal history as a former child factory worker, narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 elections but has regained momentum after an appeals court overturned an election law conviction against him, enhancing his political prospects.
Other Contenders
In second place is Labour Minister Kim Moon-soo, who has garnered around nine percent in polls. Kim gained recognition following Yoon’s martial law controversy for his refusal to bow to public pressure, which was praised by conservatives as a sign of strong leadership. Having started his career as a leftist student activist, his experiences have shaped his current conservative stance.
Future Challenges
Despite his ousting, Yoon’s ability to mobilize a politically coherent base, particularly among far-right groups, could have lasting implications for South Korean politics. The next president will not only need to bridge deep political divides but will also face pressing challenges such as revitalizing a sluggish economy and maintaining strong alliances, especially with the United States and Japan.
As noted by experts, navigating relations with North Korea will also be a critical task for the incoming administration, especially in light of the previous high-profile summits between former President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which ultimately did not yield lasting agreements.
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